Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.007050 0.007934 0.008888 0.009996 0.011246 0.012615 0.014229
2026-02-08 0.005636 0.006851 0.008270 0.010050 0.012230 0.014816 0.018123
2026-02-15 0.004771 0.006115 0.007771 0.009967 0.012810 0.016376 0.021206
2026-02-22 0.004278 0.005726 0.007591 0.010177 0.013682 0.018287 0.024828
2026-03-01 0.003708 0.005149 0.007077 0.009854 0.013769 0.019122 0.027042
2026-03-08 0.003295 0.004728 0.006711 0.009666 0.013984 0.020100 0.029490
2026-03-15 0.002933 0.004336 0.006336 0.009411 0.014051 0.020841 0.031623
2026-03-22 0.002785 0.004234 0.006361 0.009729 0.014968 0.022876 0.035844
2026-03-29 0.002624 0.004096 0.006314 0.009922 0.015700 0.024676 0.039846
2026-04-05 0.002488 0.003980 0.006286 0.010137 0.016470 0.026583 0.044171
2026-04-12 0.002297 0.003760 0.006073 0.010030 0.016705 0.027639 0.047169
2026-04-19 0.002147 0.003592 0.005928 0.010018 0.017085 0.028950 0.050697
2026-04-26 0.001980 0.003384 0.005704 0.009862 0.017219 0.029876 0.053675
2026-05-03 0.001866 0.003258 0.005609 0.009917 0.017723 0.031480 0.058012
2026-05-10 0.001741 0.003100 0.005445 0.009835 0.017971 0.032640 0.061628
2026-05-17 0.001673 0.003039 0.005444 0.010041 0.018755 0.034830 0.067368
2026-05-24 0.001532 0.002834 0.005170 0.009722 0.018529 0.035119 0.069452
2026-05-31 0.001424 0.002681 0.004976 0.009538 0.018539 0.035846 0.072451
2026-06-07 0.001316 0.002520 0.004758 0.009286 0.018396 0.036259 0.074841
2026-06-14 0.001289 0.002512 0.004826 0.009599 0.019396 0.039007 0.082300
2026-06-21 0.001248 0.002473 0.004834 0.009790 0.020162 0.041339 0.089087
2026-06-28 0.001212 0.002442 0.004851 0.010002 0.020984 0.043849 0.096482
2026-07-05 0.001144 0.002340 0.004721 0.009896 0.021129 0.044943 0.100839